This is a brief, potted, history lesson explaining why house prices have risen so much in the past 10 – 15 years.
The cause of the failure of large numbers of buyers to be able to continue to afford to get onto the housing ladder is primarily on account of government banking and finance policy or fiscal policy.
More than 10 years have passed since the 2008 financial crash and the effects of using quantitative easing (QE) are, at last, beginning to reveal themselves.
Virtually all capital assets have increased in value against sterling, whilst savings have simultaneously experienced a decrease in value – in real terms. This situation, as everyone will now undoubtedly realise, does include significant price increases right across the housing markets.
The effect of this policy has resulted in a majority of millennials (i.e. people coming-of-age around the turn of the millennium) becoming unable to afford to buy houses. Instead they will have to accept becoming long life tenants as being the only viable alternative to having to stay with their respective parents into middle age.
In my opinion, along with many others, this is sufficiently bad to warrant a complete re-think of the way monetary policy is managed both by government and equally as importantly, by the separate institution of The Bank of England.
Here is the brief reason for this conclusion:
10 years ago (2008), the government was faced with coming up with a rescue plan to deal with the global financial crisis which was seriously affecting Britain as well as the currency markets in America and other major nations’ currency markets too. The required decisions were extremely time critical.
As a response, the government decided to authorise The Bank of England to issue digital money to purchase government bonds as loans for use to fund public borrowing by financial institutions.
The effect of this (which was of course well known at the time) would be to reduce the yields on such bonds owing to the increased demand for them. The secondary effect (which would also have been well known at the time), was that we were going to have to accept permanently lower interest rates across all financial markets.
This would result in banks everywhere having access to more funds to lend but (and this is a big but), they would then need to lend more money in order to earn enough from the lower rates of interest able to be earned from it.
The scale of QE engaged upon following the crisis was huge and at unprecedented levels. Indeed such a course of action had never been tried to such a massive extent previously, even though it was deemed essential and the only plausible course to take.
Knowing that this was about to happen in the USA our government decided, along with The Bank of England, to follow suit.
The effect was going to be that suddenly, practically everyone in employment would start to have more borrowing ability and hence more purchasing power. This was intended to help the economy to recover and save it from diving into a full blown recession.
The policy however would have to adversely affect those with savings to the extent that the interest earned on all such savings would no longer keep pace with the rate of erosion of the value of their savings both by the risk of inflation as well as the severely reduced interest rates likely to be obtainable.
What the government was perhaps understandably somewhat coy about however was (knowing the only way to counteract the resultant inflationary pressures following the severe dose of QE which was about to be prescribed), they would have to simultaneously engage in a severe program of austerity cuts. The last government did this with a determination that suggested their very skins depended upon it!
The unavoidable difficulty would naturally be that more substantial mortgages, available to those who could afford to borrow, would cause house prices themselves to increase very substantially. In some places house prices have in fact actually increased by between 40 and 60% over the past five years alone because of these policies.
As wages were never going to be able to keep pace with such increases, those having to save for a deposit to buy a house were soon going to find themselves unable to save enough fast enough to keep up with expected house price increases.
The result of this, as we can now clearly see, is that many hopeful first-time buyers have had to defer and in many cases completely give up the aspiration of ever becoming home owners in their own right. This has been and is a tragedy for all of them and it is now clear for everyone to see.
Owing to the resultant house price increases the direct effect of QE has been to cause a very significant slow-down in the numbers of houses being sold across all housing markets, certainly in England and Wales. Whilst this is true it has not been very well documented, perhaps for fairly obvious reasons.
A further side-effect is that estate agency is suffering significantly, since they generally get paid after the sales they have actually arranged are completed. Thus they are experiencing a similar fate to the other organisations more directly subject to the targeted austerity measures.
The true aftermath of the risky QE approach embarked upon is now becoming clear. We are destined to be stuck with very low interest rates for years to come and our house prices, like a mirage appearing to stay just out of reach of the thirsty, will remain similarly out of reach, for a large number of future home-makers or home owners. There seems to be no easy alternative – now that we have been led down this particular road for such a long distance and, to a large extent, in our ignorance.
There is however one way in which houses may be priced more competitively and market sales turnover thus restored. It is what is advocated by The House Price Solution which is explained more fully in the link below.
Implementing this solution would greatly help both the present and future affordability of all houses by improving open market conditions. This would allow the prices paid, to more closely match peoples’ ability to buy instead of having prices set based largely on the projected financial returns of house builders and developers – as generally happens at present.
The House Price Solution is a new and innovative way to make all housing markets across the land, behave more in accordance with what local people can actually afford, by placing less reliance on vendors’ asking prices as being the primary price mark. It was conceived by Peter Hendry, a surveyor with years of experience working in the front line of providing reliable property advice to intending purchasers by inspecting the houses they planned to purchase and reporting as to the condition of these directly to the buyer involved.
In the long run The House Price Solution, if implemented, would begin to restore confidence by enabling successful house purchasing across all areas, both within our towns and in the country.
I would therefore earnestly suggest that this proposal should receive full scrutiny and I would also encourage healthy debate in regard to it by all those with genuine knowledge in the housing sector.
How to Improve all local housing markets across England and Wales
Posted by: Peter Hendry, Housing Valuation Consultant
Author of:– The House Price Solution (otherwise known as The Hendry Solution).
What do you think about this idea for drastically improving the operation of all housing markets potentially across the whole of Britain?
Constructive comments are very much welcomed.
My second article titled:
Further justification for changing the way houses are marketed within the U.K.